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Electronic ASOR Bulletin
Volume 22           Number 2               June 2003
Published by: The Australian Society for Operations Research Inc.
ISSN 1446-6678


Contents


Editorial

Happy New Year.

In this issue, J Kamruzzaman and R Sarker have contributed a technical paper on Comparing ANN Based Models with ARIMA for Prediction of Forex Rates, and we are delighted to be publishing it here as a referred paper for Bulletin readers. In this issue, we have also published a brief report on the Mathematics in Industry Study Group (MISG) Conference 2003 held at the University of South Australia, Adelaide in February this year.

The 17th National Conference of Australian Society for Operations Research will be held in Sydney, as part of the 5th International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics, in Sydney, during 7-11 July 2003. The details of the conference can be found in the forthcoming conference section in page 13 of this Bulletin.

I am pleased to inform you that the electronic version of ASOR Bulletin is now available at this web site. Although the electronic version is prepared as an HTML file, for technical reasons articles may be in PDF or PS format.

Address for sending contributions to the ASOR Bulletin:

Ruhul A Sarker
Editor, ASOR Bulletin
School of Computer Science
Australian Defence Force Academy
Northcott Drive, Canberra 2600
Email: ruhul@cs.adfa.edu.au

  or

Emma Hunt
Associate Editor, ASOR Bulletin
DSTO, PO Box 1500
Edinburgh 5111
Email: Emma.Hunt@dsto.defence.gov.au


 


 
Comparing ANN Based Models with ARIMA for Prediction of Forex Rates

Joarder Kamruzzaman* and Ruhul A Sarker**

* Gippsland School of Computing and Information Technology, Monash University, Churcill, Victoria, Australia (Joarder.Kamruzzaman@infotech.monash.edu.au)
** School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, UNSW@ADFA, Canberra, Australia (ruhul@cs.adfa.edu.au)

Abstract

In the dynamic global economy, the accuracy in forecasting the foreign currency exchange (Forex) rates or at least predicting the trend correctly is of crucial importance for any future investment. The use of computational intelligence based techniques for forecasting has been proved extremely successful in recent times. In this paper, we developed and investigated three Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based forecasting models using Standard Backpropagation (SBP), Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) and Backpropagation with Baysian Regularization (BPR) for Australian Foreign Exchange to predict six different currencies against Australian dollar. Five moving average technical indicators are used to build the models. These models were evaluated using three performance metrics, and a comparison was made with the best known conventional forecasting model ARIMA. All the ANN based models outperform ARIMA model. It is found that SCG based model performs best when measured on the two most commonly used metrics and shows competitive results when compared with BPR based model on the third indicator. Experimental results demonstrate that ANN based model can closely forecast the forex market.


 
 

Report on MISG 2003

The 2003 MISG, held in the first week of February at the City East Campus of the University of South Australia, brought together about 100 professional industrial mathematicians and industry researchers for 5 days of intense collaboration. The international delegates included special guests, Walter Murray (Stanford) and Bob Storer (LeHigh) from the USA and John King and Giles Richardson (both from Nottingham) in the UK.  Six problems were considered.
  • A Submarine Lead Acid Battery Performance Model for the Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC);
  • Analysis of Hierarchical Games for the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO);
  • Particle transport through the froth layer in column flotation for the Ian Wark Research Institute (IWRI);
  • Prediction of heat loss and energy requirements in steel making vessels for New Zealand Steel;
  • Best utilisation of rolling stock assets to reduce costs while meeting customer demand for Queensland Rail (QR); and
  • The effects of deadlock avoidance on rail network capacity and performance for the Rail CRC.
MISG 2003 was a resounding success with good progress made on each of the problems.  Although it is still too early to say much about the solutions that were developed or proposed we will include a brief description of the problems and try to indicate what was achieved.

Diesel electric submarines utilise a large flooded lead acid battery as a secondary energy storage medium.  The battery is the only source of power for the submarine while it is submerged.  The batteries are regularly charged from diesel electric generator sets that provide power for the submarine as well as for charging the batteries.  Operating the diesel engines requires manoeuvring the submarine close to the surface while extending a snorkel on a mast above the surface to provide air for the engines.  This operation is known as snorting.  During this time the submarine is considered to be indiscreet and is extremely vulnerable to detection.  Battery data has been collected during typical surveillance and combat operations.  The ASC asked MISG to develop a suitable model of the battery that could be used to explain this observed data and subsequently to use the model to decide on the most efficient charge and discharge regimes for each of the various tasks.  The Moderators for this problem were Mark McGuinness and Basil Benjamin.  The team spent a great deal of time developing partial differential equations to describe the chemistry of the charge and discharge processes.  UK experts John King and Giles Richardson made excellent contributions to the modelling process.  We expect the models to provide an excellent basis for the development of optimal battery management strategies.  Industry representative Peter Tromans hopes the ASC can continue collaborating with MISG to complete this task.

A critical issue in the operation of any organisation is the training of individuals and the subsequent training of groups that must work together to achieve large and complex goals.  One of the critical issues is the hierarchical structure of the tasks, which are often divided into many subtasks.  The subtasks frequently permit diverse solution methods and different tactical approaches.  Achievement of the larger goal may be dependent on the performance of the subtasks, and the dependence may not be a simple aggregation of subtasks.  One might win the battle, but subsequently lose the war.  The trainees must learn individual skills and team skills that enable them to work effectively and efficiently for the achievement of the larger goals.  At the subtask level this may sometimes involve counter-intuitive strategies that appear suboptimal.  DSTO asked MISG to consider a simple hierarchical game such as tennis where the goals are clear and the outcomes can be tested against the theory.  DSTO believe that a better understanding of the critical factors in a simple game will provide insights into the management of large and complex logistics.  Vladimir Ejov and Elliott Tonkes and their team developed a simple model to classify the relative importance of individual points in a game of tennis and related this classification to an optimal overall strategy.  The investigation showed clearly that players would benefit by expending more effort to win the important points.  MISG will help DSTO to extend these methods to more complex problems.  George Galanis from DSTO wants to continue this collaboration.

The use of column flotation to separate metallic particles from the original heterogeneous ores is a well-established and widely used procedure.  The column consists of two basic zones with a froth layer on top and a pulp layer below.  Although some useful models have been developed to describe the capture and transport of material in the pulp the principal quantitative mechanisms that describe particle transport and fluid flow within the foam have not been successfully modelled.  Stephen Lucas and Bill Whiten supervised an enthusiastic group of researchers who reviewed the literature and compared the relative merits of macroscopic and microscopic models.  The macroscopic models are primarily concerned with the overall movement of particles and liquid through an idealised foam lattice, whereas the microscopic models look more closely at the detailed structures.  By the end of the week the team had dispelled some myths about particles falling back into the pulp and had isolated the key mass-balance equations that should help IWRI to develop a useful model.  George Tsatouhas and Sarah Schwarz from IWRI were enthusiastic members of the MISG team.

The K-OBM is a steel-making vessel consisting of a steel shell lined with refractory bricks.  The vessel is used to convert batches of hot metal containing impure iron and steel scrap into steel by blowing oxygen through the bath.  The oxidation of elements in the hot metal and scrap increases the temperature of the metal while changing its composition to that of refined steel.  The purpose of the project is to improve the prediction of the end-point steel temperature by predicting the energy lost from the molten bath to the K-OBM vessel during each heat.  This prediction would need to encompass the thermal history of the vessel between successive heats and sequences, and the lining wear through a vessel lifetime.  An additional outcome may be a better prediction of the heating time required to bring a new vessel to the operating temperature.  The Moderators, Robert McKibbin and Graeme Wake, believe that good progress was made on modelling this problem and the NZ Steel representatives, Neil McGillivray and Michael O'Connor, were very pleased with the work done by the MISG researchers.

Queensland Rail operates a heavy-haul coal business on five rail corridors in Queensland.  The freight cost of hauling a tonne of coal varies for each rolling stock configuration.  One of the main factors that influences cost is cycle time.  This is the time that a train takes to travel to and from the mine and includes loading and unloading.  The problem involves utilising the available rolling stock in the best possible way to find the lowest cost option.  Some rolling stock configuration options may necessitate expenditure to increase loop length or reduce grades.  These options may be considered if the freight cost reductions achieved over time outweigh the implementation costs. An enthusiastic group led by Jerzy Filar and Simon Dunstall managed to develop several independent solution algorithms with initial calculations suggesting savings of several million dollars each year.  It is expected that more follow-up work will be done and that the savings will be increased.  The QR representative, mathematics graduate Caroline Camilleri, delighted the research team by presenting each member with a QR t-shirt.

The Rail CRC is currently investigating the development of computer programs to generate optimal railway timetables.  The method of generation is to use random variations on a simple despatch rule to generate a large number of possible alternative timetables.  The minimum cost timetable is then selected.  A significant problem with this method is that many apparently minor variations of a feasible plan can ultimately lead to deadlock.  Most of Australia’s long-haul rail network is single-line track, with occasional crossing loops that allow trains to cross or overtake.  For a pair of trains to pass each other, one train will pull off the main line and stop on the loop while the second train passes through on the main line.  If trains cannot complete their journeys without at least one of them backing up then they are said to be in deadlock.  Detailed train plans that specify future train movements, including nominal crossing locations and times, are developed by train planners.  The methods used are substantially manual, and it can take many weeks to develop a timetable.  On the day of operation a train controller may revise the train movements and crossing plans when responding to operational disturbances.  The object of this project was to find efficient ways to avoid computer generated timetables that lead to deadlock.  The Moderators, Peter Pudney and Graham Mills, and the MISG team have proposed some very promising methods.  MISG expert Bob Storer, from LeHigh University in the USA, worked intensively on this problem and continued those discussions with CRC researchers at UniSA following MISG.  The Rail CRC representative Paul Milevskiy from QR is convinced that the MISG work will lead to significant improvements in timetabling.

- Prof. Phil Howlett, Director, MISG 2003, UniSA, ADelaide
 

Forthcoming Conferences

 
ASOR’2003
The 17th National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research Inc., Sydney, Australia 7-11 July 2003
The 17th National Conference of Australian Society for Operations Research will be held in Sydney, as part of the 5th International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics, ICIAM 2003, in Sydney, during 7-11 July 2003. The web site for ICIAM 2003 is http://www.iciam.org .

Extended Submission deadlines            
•   28 January 2003: deadline for abstract submissions for ASOR conference.


Registration deadlines
•    31 March 2003: deadline for normal registration fee.
•    30 June 2003: deadline for late registration fee.
•    14 June 2003:  distribution of final announcement, with timetables.


DEFENCE OPERATIONS RESEARCH SYMPOSIUM (DORS 2003)
  7-11 July 2003 (days to be finalised), Sydney

This is a call for papers and posters for the fifth DSTO conference devoted to the practice of military operations research and analysis.  The symposium will be open to all people interested in Defence operations research.  The focus of the conference is on applications of OR techniques and the introduction and exchange of new techniques for military OR.  

This year, in order to encourage exchange of ideas with Operations Research practitioners in the wider scientific community, DORS is being held as a Defence OR stream within the 17th National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research (ASOR), which is itself an embedded meeting within the 5th International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics (ICIAM).
 
Registration
Please register through the ICIAM web site.  

 Submission of Abstracts
Titles and abstracts of papers and posters are requested to be submitted to Dr Jane Sexton*  before close of business 6 December, 2002.  Do not submit directly to ICIAM - the initial ICIAM deadline for abstracts has passed, so the DORS organisers now need an early indication of contributions to reserve a block of time slots in the ASOR meeting.  To aid the selection process, abstracts should clearly identify the OR approaches to be presented and how the techniques will be illustrated (by demonstration, case study etc.).  
 
  *Dr Jane Sexton Amphibious Operations Group, MOD,  Defence Science & Technology Organisation PO Box 44, Pyrmont NSW 2009 Ph: 02 9692 1307 Fax: 02 9692 1561 Email:  Jane.Sexton@dsto.defence.gov.au


2003 Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC2003)
8-12th December 2003, Canberra, Australia
http://www.cs.adfa.edu.au/cec_2003/

The Congress on Evolutionary Computation, co-sponsored by the IEEE Neural Networks Society, the Evolutionary Programming Society, the IEAust, and the IEE, is the leading international conference in the field. The 2003 Congress will be held in Canberra, Australia.

It covers all topics in evolutionary computation: from combinatorial to numerical optimization, from supervised to unsupervised learning, from co-evolution to collective behaviours, from evolutionary design to evolvable hardware, from molecular to quantum computing, from ant colony to artificial ecology, etc.

The emphasis of the Congress will be on original theories and novel applications of evolutionary computation techniques. The Congress welcomes paper submissions from researchers, practitioners, and students worldwide.

The Congress will feature keynote speeches and tutorials by world-leading researchers. It also will include a number of special sessions and workshops on the latest hot topics.
Important dates:

Date     for
14th June 2003     Submission
9th August 2003     Acceptance
9th September 2003     Final Version
8-12th December 2003     Conference
For further details, visit the conference web-site. http://www.cs.adfa.edu.au/cec_2003/


Forthcoming International Conferences


•    ITEE 2003: First World Congress on Information Technology in Environmental Engineering, Gdansk, Poland, June 24-27, 2003
http://www.icsc-naiso.org/conferences/itee2003/index.html

•    EURO/INFORMS Joint International Meeting: New Opportunities for Operations Research, Istanbul, Turkey, July 6-10, 2003
http://www.istanbul2003.org/

•    ISDSS'03: The 7th International Conference of the International Society for Decision Support Systems: DSS in the Uncertainty of the Internet Age, Ustron, Poland, July 13-16, 2003

•    IFIP TC 7: 21st Conference on System Modeling and Optimization, Sophia Antipolis, France, July 21-25, 2003
http://www.devinci.fr/cs/ifip/

•    SCI 2003: The 7th World Multi Conference on Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics Orlando, Florida, USA, July 27-30, 2003
http://www.iiisci.org/sci2003/

•    WADS 2003: Workshop on Algorithms and Data Structures, Ottawa, Canada, July 30 - August 1, 2003
http://www.wads.org/

•    MOPTA 03: 3rd Annual McMaster Optimization Conference: Theory and Applications, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, July 30 - August 1, 2003
http://www.cas.mcmaster.ca/~mopta/

•    ISMP 2003: The 18th International Symposium on Mathematical Programming, Copenhagen, Denmark, August 18-22, 2003
http://www.ismp2003.dk/

•    EUROGEN 2003: Evolutionary Methods for Design, Optimisation and Control with Applications to Industrial and Societal Problems, Barcelona, Spain, September 15-17, 2003
http://congress.cimne.upc.es/eurogen03/frontal/default.asp

•    GI2003: The 5th International Industrial Engineering Conference "Industrial Engineering and the New Global Challenges," Quebec, Canada, October 26-29, 2003
http://www.centor.ulaval.ca/gi2003/


•    APORS2003: Sixth International Conference of the Association of Asia-Pacific Operational Research Societies within IFORS, New Delhi, India, December 8-10, 2003
http://www.apors2003.com  


•    ICOTA2004: Sixth International Conference on Optimization: Techniques and Applications, Ballarat, Australia, December 9-11, 2004
http://www.ballarat.edu.au/itms/orb/index.html



New Books for 2003
(Continued from last issue)

Compiled by: Emma Hunt




The Theory of Search Games and Rendezvous
By
Steve Alpern, London School of Economics, UK and
Shmuel Gal, University of Haifa, Israel
Book Series: International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 55)

Search Theory is one of the classic methodological disciplines in Operations Research and Applied Mathematics. It deals with the problem faced by a searcher who wishes to minimize the time required to find a hidden object. Traditionally, the target of the search is assigned to have no motives of its own and is either stationary (e.g., oil, network problems, etc.) or its motion is determined stochastically by known rules (e.g., financial markets, scheduling, genetics, etc.). The Theory of Search Games and Rendezvous widens the dimensions to the classical problem with the addition of an independent player of equal status to the searcher, who cares about being found or not being found. These multiple motives of searcher and hider are analytically and mathematically considered in the book's two foci: Search Games (Book I) and Rendezvous Theory (Book II).

Shmuel Gal's work on Search Games (Gal, 1980) stimulated considerable research in a variety of fields including Computer Science, Engineering, Biology, and Economics. Steve Alpern's original formulation of the rendezvous search problem in 1976 and his formalization of the continuous version (Alpern, 1995) have led to much research in rendezvous theory in the past few years. New material is covered in both

Search Games (Book I) and Rendezvous Theory (Book II). The book examines a whole variety of new configurations of theory and problems that arise from these two aspects of the analysis - resulting in a penetrating state-of-the-art treatment of this highly useful mathematical, analytical tool.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 0-7923-7468-1
December 2002,  336 pp.
EUR 137.00 /  USD 130.00 /  GBP 87.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/0-7923-7468-1

Discrete Optimization: The State of the Art
Edited by
E. Boros, Rutgers University, Center for Operations Research, Piscataway, NJ, USA
P.L. Hammer, Rutgers University, Center for Operations Research, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Series:  Topics in Discrete Mathematics (Volume11)
 
One of the most frequently occurring types of optimization problems involves decision variables which have to take integer values. From a practical point of view, such problems occur in countless areas of management, engineering, administration, etc., and include such problems as location of plants or warehouses, scheduling of aircraft, cutting raw materials to prescribed dimensions, design of computer chips, increasing reliability or capacity of networks, etc. This is the class of problems known in the professional literature as "discrete optimization" problems. While these problems are of enormous applicability, they present many challenges from a computational point of view. This volume is an update on the impressive progress achieved by mathematicians, operations researchers, and computer scientists in solving discrete optimization problems of very large sizes. The surveys in this volume present a comprehensive overview of the state of the art in discrete optimization and are written by the most prominent researchers from all over the world.

This volume describes the tremendous progress in discrete optimization achieved in the last 20 years since the publication of Discrete Optimization '77, Annals of Discrete Mathematics, volumes 4 and 5, 1979 (Elsevier). It contains surveys of the state of the art written by the most prominent researchers in the field from all over the world, and covers topics like neighborhood search techniques, lift and project for mixed 0-1 programming, pseudo-Boolean optimization, scheduling and assignment problems, production planning, location, bin packing, cutting planes, vehicle routing, and applications to graph theory, mechanics, chip design, etc.

This book is a reprint of Discrete Applied Mathematics Volume 23, Numbers 1-3.

Elsevier Science, 2003
ISBN: 0-444-51295-0
Hardbound, 588 pages
USD 70 / EUR 70
http://www.elsevier.com/inca/publications/store/6/7/2/6/8/2/index.htt


Analysis and Modeling of Manufacturing Systems
Edited by
Stanley B. Gershwin, 
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
Yves Dallery
Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
Chrissoleon T. Papadopoulos
University of the Aegean, Chios Island, Greece
J. MacGregor Smith
University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA

Book Series:   International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 60)

Analysis and Modeling of Manufacturing Systems is a set of papers on some of the newest research and applications of mathematical and computational techniques to manufacturing systems and supply chains. These papers deal with fundamental questions (how to predict factory performance: how to operate production systems) and explicitly treat the stochastic nature of failures, operation times, demand, and other important events.

Analysis and Modeling of Manufacturing Systems will be of interest to readers with a strong background in operations research, including researchers and mathematically sophisticated practitioners.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7303-8
November 2002,  454 pp.
EUR 139.00 /  USD 135.50 /  GBP 87.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7303-8

Handbook of Metaheuristics
Edited by
Fred W. Glover
University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
Gary A. Kochenberger
University of Colorado at Denver, USA
Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 57)

The Handbook of Metaheuristics provides both the research and practitioner communities with a comprehensive coverage of the metaheuristic methodologies that have proven to be successful in a wide variety of real-world problem settings. Moreover, it is these metaheuristic strategies that hold particular promise for success in the future. The various chapters serve as stand alone presentations giving both
the necessary background underpinnings as well as practical guides for implementation. In most settings a problem solver has an option as to which metaheuristic approach should be adopted for the problem at hand. Alternative methodologies typically exist that could be employed to produce high quality solutions.

Often it becomes a matter of choosing one of several approaches that could be adopted. The very nature of metaheuristics invites an analyst to modify basic methods in response to problem characteristics, past experiences, and personal preferences. The chapters in this handbook are designed to facilitate this as well.

This Handbook consists of 19 chapters. Topics covered include Scatter Search, Tabu Search, Genetic Algorithms, Genetic Programming, Memetic Algorithms, Variable Neighborhood Search, Guided Local Search, GRASP, Ant Colony Optimization, Simulated Annealing, Iterated Local Search, Multi-Start Methods, Constraint Programming, Constraint Satisfaction, Neural Network Methods for Optimization, Hyper-Heuristics, Parallel Strategies for Metaheuristics, Metaheuristic Class Libraries, and A-Teams.  This family of metaheuristic chapters provides a state-of-the-art, comprehensive coverage of the major topics and methodologies of modern metaheuristics.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7263-5
January 2003,  570 pp.
EUR 183.00 /  USD 174.00 /  GBP 117.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7263-5


Modeling, Control and Optimization of Complex Systems
Edited by
Weibo Gong
University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA
Leyuan Shi
 University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA
Book Series:  The Kluwer International Series on Discrete Event Dynamic Systems (Volume 14)

Modeling, Control and Optimization of Complex Systems is a collection of contributions from leading international researchers in the fields of dynamic systems, control theory and modeling. These papers were presented at the Symposium on Modeling and Optimization of Complex Systems in honor of Larry Yu-Chi Ho in June 2001. They include research topics such as: modeling of complex systems, power control in ad hoc wireless networks, adaptive control using multiple models, Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning, optimal control for discrete event and hybrid systems, optimal representation and visualization of multivariate data and functions in low-dimensional spaces.
 
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7208-2
October 2002,  320 pp.
EUR 132.00 /  USD 120.00 /  GBP 84.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7208-2


Models & Methods for Project Selection:  Concepts from Management Science, Finance and Information Technology
By
Samuel B. Graves
Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Jeffrey L. Ringuest
Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 58)

Models & Methods for Project Selection systematically examines in this book treatment the latest work in the field of project selection modeling. The models presented are drawn from mathematical programming, decision theory, and finance. These models are examined in two categorical streams: the management science stream and the financial model stream. The book describes the assumptions and limitations of each model and provides appropriate solution methodologies. Its organization follows three main themes:

Criteria for Choice: Chapters 1-3 investigate the effect of the choice of optimization criteria on the results of the portfolio optimization problem. This group of chapters examines the multiobjective linear programming approach, discusses the appropriate methods for adjusting for time and risk in the project selection problem, and expands on the discussion of optimisation models and NPV.

Risk and Uncertainty: Chapters 4-7 deal with uncertainty in the project selection problem. The models developed in this section are based on probability distribution assumptions or estimates and deal with uncertainty in some aspect of the project selection model.

Non-Linearity and Interdependence: These chapters deal with problems of non-linearity and interdependence as they arise in the project selection problem. The ability to handle non-linear problems allows the application of the methodology to a far wider range of problems. Similarly, the ability to model interdependence between projects - as in the Information Technology models – is an important step in generalization. Chapters 8, 9 and 10 present solution methodologies, which can be used to solve these most general project selection models.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7280-5
October 2002,  212 pp.
EUR 116.00 /  USD 110.00 /  GBP 74.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7280-5


Handbook of Transportation Science
Second Edition
Edited by
Randolph W. Hall
Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA

Book Series:   International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 56)

Over the past thirty-five years, a substantial amount of theoretical and empirical scholarly research has been developed across the discipline domains of Transportation. This research has been synthesized into a systematic handbook that examines the scientific concepts, methods, and principles of this growing and evolving field. The Handbook of Transportation Science outlines the field of transportation as a scientific discipline that transcends transportation technology and methods. Whether by car, truck, airplane - or by a mode of transportation that has not yet been conceived - transportation obeys fundamental properties. The science of transportation defines these properties, and demonstrates how our knowledge of one mode of transportation can be used to explain the behavior of another.

Transportation scientists are motivated by the desire to explain spatial interactions that result in movement of people or objects from place to place. Its methodologies draw from physics, operations research, probability and control theory.

 The eighteen chapters in the Second Edition of the Handbook of Transportation Science are written by the leading researchers in Transportation Science as a continual effort to explore the scientific nature and state-of-the-art of the field. As such, it is directed to all the research and practitioner domains of transportation. It has been expanded from the first edition through the addition of four chapters. Chapter 15 extends the networks section of the book by addressing supply chains, distribution networks and logistics. While the emphasis is on freight transportation, the principles for network design extend to other applications, such as public economics. Chapter 16 through 18 fall in a new section on transportation economics. Chapter 16 addresses revenue management, a relatively recent topic in
transportation, which has had substantial impact on the airline industry in particular. Chapter 17 presents spatial interaction models, which provides a mechanism for analyzing patterns of development. Chapter 18 provides the principles of transportation economics, with emphasis on pricing and public policy. In addition to the new chapters, the original chapters have been updated and revised.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7246-5
January 2003,  752 pp.
EUR 250.00 /  USD 245.00 /  GBP 157.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7246-5


To Queue or Not to Queue:  Equilibrium Behavior in Queueing Systems
By
Refael Hassin
Tel Aviv University, Israel
Moshe Haviv
The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel and The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia
Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 59)

To Queue Or Not To Queue: Equilibrium Behavior in Queueing Systems focuses on the highly interesting, practical viewpoint of customer behavior and its effect on the performance of the queueing system. The book's objectives are threefold: (1) It is a comprehensive survey of the literature on equilibrium behavior of customers and servers in queueing systems. The literature is rich and considerable, but lacks continuity. This book will provide the needed continuity and cover some issues that have not been adequately treated. (2) In addition, it will examine the known results of the field, classify them and identify where and how they relate to each other. (3) And finally, it seeks to fill a number of the gaps in the literature with new results while explicitly outlining open problems in other areas. With this book, it is the authors' paramount purpose is to motivate further research and to help researchers identify new and interesting open problems.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7203-1
November 2002,  208 pp.
EUR 103.00 /  USD 98.00 /  GBP 66.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7203-1


Operations Research Models and Methods
By
Paul A. Jensen
Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, USA
Jonathan F. Bard
Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, USA

 This text is designed to bridge the gap between theory and practice by presenting the quantitative tools and models most suited for modern operations research. The principal goal is to give analysts, engineers, and decision makers a larger appreciation of their roles by defining a common terminology and by explaining the interfaces between the underlying methodologies.

This text is accompanied by easy-to-use, customized software in the form of Excel add-ins. This software allows the reader to solve a great variety of problems including those presented in the text, homework assignments, and problems that might arise from real-world applications. There are also three commercial software packages provided with the text: an improved version of the optimization engine that comes with Excel, a mathematical programming language that allows the user to enter large, structured problems in algebraic form and a state-of-the-art discrete event simulation package that is widely used by the industry.

John Wiley & Sons
Hardbound,  ISBN 0-471-38004-0
September 2002, 700 pp
US 122.95
http://www.wiley.com/cda/product/0,,0471380040|desc|2784,00.html
http://www.me.utexas.edu/%7Ejensen/ORMM/


Advanced Modeling for Transit Operations and Service Planning
Edited by
W.H.K. Lam
Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong
Email: cehklam@polyu.edu.hk
M.G.H. Bell
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2BU Email: m.g.h.bell@ic.ac.uk

While public transport or transit systems have been in existence much longer than road traffic systems, the mathematical analysis techniques so necessary for proper transit planning and operations have lagged far behind that of road traffic systems. For example, the body of literature available on the design of stopping schedules for urban rail lines is miniscule in comparison with the literature on the coordination of traffic signals along an urban road.
On the other hand, transit professionals appear to have disregarded most of the wealth of insight that has been available in the literature for more than a decade. The literature on capacity constraint transit assignment models is one good example. However, public transport operators are faced with ever-greater pressure in competitive markets and congested transit systems, particularly during peak hour periods. The need to estimate passenger demand and to monitor the performance of individual services, as well as the system as a whole, to support better planning and tighter operations management and for external reporting, has increased. Reliability and control issues have become very important and critical in making the transit system more efficient, particularly with Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). As tightening constraints raise serious questions about the cost-effectiveness of existing public transport services, improvements which can be implemented in the short run and long term are continuously sought. Collectively, these pressures have focused attention on advanced methods and new techniques for improving transit planning and operations.
This book addresses the important and timely problems of how to improve transit operations and service planning by making use of new technologies and advanced modeling techniques. It provides important references for determining the outcome of introducing these technologies and methods, and thus assists transit professionals and scientists in resolving practical issues of the implementation of ITS in improving urban public transport conditions. This book is the first devoted exclusively to the topic of advanced modeling for transit operation and service planning.
Elsevier Science
Hardbound, ISBN 0-08-044206-4
Year 2002, 354 pp
USD 90 / EUR 90
http://www.elsevier.com/inca/publications/store/6/6/7/1/4/1/index.htt


Intelligent Support Systems for Marketing Decisions
By
Nikolaos F. Matsatsinis
Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece
Yannis Siskos
Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece
Book Series:   International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 54)

Intelligent Support Systems for Marketing Decisions examines new product development, market penetration strategies, and other marketing decisions utilizing a confluence of methods, including Decision Support Systems (DSS), Artificial Intelligence in Marketing and Multicriteria Analysis. The authors systematically examine the use and implementation of these methodologies in making strategic marketing decisions.

Part I discusses the basic concepts of multicriteria analysis vis-à-vis marketing decisions and in new product development situations. Part II presents basic concepts from the fields of Information Systems, Decision Support Systems, and Intelligent Decision Support Methods. In addition, specialized categories of DSS (multicriteria DSS, web-based DSS, group DSS, spatial DSS) are discussed in terms of their key features and current use in marketing applications. Part III presents IDSS and a multicriteria methodology for new product development. Further chapters present a developmental strategy for
analyzing, designing, and implementing an Intelligent Marketing Decision Support System. The implementation discussion is illustrated with a real-world example of the methods and system in use.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7194-9
October 2002,  528 pp.
EUR 155.00 /  USD 148.00 /  GBP 99.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7194-9


Computational Techniques of the Simplex Method
By
István Maros
Dept. of Computing, Imperial College, London, UK
Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 61)

Linear Programming (LP) is perhaps the most frequently used optimization technique. One of the reasons for its wide use is that very powerful solution algorithms exist for linear optimization. Computer programs based on either the simplex or interior point methods are capable of solving very large-scale problems with high reliability and within reasonable time. Model builders are aware of this and often try to formulate real-life problems within this framework to ensure they can be solved efficiently. It is also true that many real-life optimization problems can be formulated as truly linear models and also many others can well be approximated by linearization. The two main methods for solving LP problems are the variants of the simplex method and the interior point methods (IPMs). It turns out that both variants have their role in solving different problems. It has been recognized that, since the introduction of the IPMs, the efficiency of simplex based solvers has increased by two orders of magnitude. This increased efficiency can be attributed to the following: (1) theoretical developments in the underlying algorithms, (2) inclusion of results of computer science, (3) using the principles of software engineering, and (4) taking into account the state-of-the-art in computer technology.

Theoretically correct algorithms can be implemented in many different ways, but the performance is dependent on how the implementation is done. The success is based on the proper synthesis of the above mentioned (1-4) components. Computational Techniques of the Simplex Method is a systematic treatment focused on the computational issues of the simplex method. It provides a comprehensive coverage of the most important and successful algorithmic and implementation techniques of the simplex method. It is a unique source of essential, never discussed details of algorithmic elements and their implementation. On the basis of the book the reader will be able to create a highly advanced implementation of the simplex method which, in turn, can be used directly or as a building block in other solution algorithms.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7332-1
December 2002,  352 pp.
EUR 126.00 /  USD 120.00 /  GBP 80.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7332-1


Computational Intelligence in Control
Edited by
Masoud Mohammadian
University of Canberra, Australia
Ruhul Sarker
University of New South Wales, Australia
Xin Yao
University of Birmingham, UK
 
The problem of controlling uncertain dynamic systems, which are subject to external disturbances, uncertainty and sheer complexity is of considerable interest in computer science, Operations Research and Business domains. The application of intelligent systems has been found useful in problems when the process is either difficult to model or difficult to solve by conventional methods. Intelligent systems have attracted increasing attention in recent years for solving many complex problems. Computational Intelligence in Control will be a repository for the theory and applications of intelligent systems techniques in modelling control and automation.

Idea Group Publishing
Hardbound, ISBN 1-59140-037-6
2003, 350 pp
89.95 US
http://www.idea-group.com/books/details.asp?id=504


Tools for Thinking: Modelling in Management Science , Second Edition
By
Michael Pidd
Dept of Management Science, Lancaster University, UK
 
Thinking things through is easier said than done, but there are tools that can help decision-making. Writing from over 25 years' experience as a management teacher and consultant, Mike Pidd provides the tools for thinking that will help us to examine the consequences of decisions before we act.

Tools for Thinking builds a bridge between the soft and hard OR schools of thought and provides an empirically-based framework in which to place them, thus helping overcome the inherent suspicions of both camps. Focusing on modeling as an activity, rather than on models and techniques, the book argues for its relevance alongside intuition, vision and leadership. Above all it stresses that systematic thinking and analysis has a role to play in organizational life. By introducing the model as a tool for thought, Pidd shows how models can be employed to explore possible future scenarios and to make sense of managerial vision.
 
Extensively revised and updated, this new edition of Tools for Thinking builds on the success of the original book and shows how both soft and hard approaches can be used in practice.

John Wiley & Sons
Paperback, ISBN: 0-470-84795-6
March 2003, 322 pp
US 45.00
http://www.wiley.com/cda/product/0,,0470847956,00.html


Quantitative Models for Performance Evaluation and Benchmarking: Data Development Analysis with Spreadsheets and DEA Excel Solver
By
Joe Zhu
Dept. of Management, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, MA, USA
Book Series:   International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 51)

It is difficult to evaluate an organization's performance when there are multiple inputs and multiple outputs to the system. The difficulties are further enhanced when the relationships between the inputs and the outputs are complex and involve unknown tradeoffs. This book introduces DEA as a multiple-measure performance evaluation and benchmarking tool. The focus of performance evaluation and benchmarking is shifted from characterizing performance in terms of single measures to evaluating performance as a multidimensional systems perspective.

New DEA models and approaches are presented to deal with performance evaluation problems in a variety of contexts. A context-dependent DEA measures the relative attractiveness of similar operations/processes/products. Sensitivity analysis techniques can be easily applied and used to identify critical performance measures. Value chain efficiency models and DEA benchmarking models can be utilized to study the impact of information technology (IT) investments. These models can help
organizations better understand the real impact of their IT investments and integrate technology more efficiently and effectively for the future.

Conventional and new DEA approaches are presented and discussed using spreadsheets - one of the most effective ways to analyze and evaluate decision alternatives. The user can easily develop and customize new DEA models based upon these spreadsheets.

This book also provides easy-to-use DEA software - DEA Excel Solver. This DEA Excel Solver is an Add-In for Microsoft® Excel and provides a custom menu of DEA approaches, which include more than150 different DEA models. It is an extremely powerful tool that can assist decision-makers in benchmarking and analyzing complex operational efficiency issues in manufacturing organizations as
well as evaluating processes in banking, retail, franchising, health care, e-business, public services and many other industries. The DEA Excel Solver does not set limit on the number of units, inputs or outputs. With the capacity of Excel Solver, the DEA Excel Solver can deal with large sized performance evaluation tasks. For a free version of DEA Excel Solver, please visit www.deafrontier.com.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston
Hardbound includes CD-ROM, ISBN 1-4020-7082-9
October 2002,  328 pp.
EUR 180.00 /  USD 175.00 /  GBP 112.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7082-9

 


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