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Electronic ASOR Bulletin
Volume 23           Number 4               December 2004
Published by: The Australian Society for Operations Research Inc.

ISSN 1446-6678


Contents


Editorial

Merry Chrismas and Happy New Year.

Mr Ang Yang and Mr Paul Hutchinson have contributed two interesting short papers on (i) Understanding Network Centric Warfare and (ii) Interaction in Factorial Experiments: Relevance of Curvilinearity of Response respectively. We are delighted to be publishing them here for Bulletin readers. The abstracts of the recently completed Melbourne student conference are also published in this issue. In addition, an itroduction to the international centre of excellence for education in mathematics is provided.

I am pleased to inform you that the electronic version of ASOR Bulletin is now available at this web site. Although the electronic version is prepared as an HTML file, for technical reasons articles may be in PDF or PS format.

Address for sending contributions to the ASOR Bulletin:

Ruhul A Sarker
Editor, ASOR Bulletin
School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering
The University of NSW at the Australian Defence Force Academy
Northcott Drive, Canberra 2600
Email: ruhul@cs.adfa.edu.au

  or

Emma Hunt
Associate Editor, ASOR Bulletin
DSTO, PO Box 1500
Edinburgh 5111
Email: Emma.Hunt@dsto.defence.gov.au


 
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  Understanding Network Centric Warfare

Ang Yang

Abstract

Network centric warfare (NCW) is a new theory for war in the information age. NCW advocates that networking battlefield entities will produce shared information, shared knowledge and shared understanding which produce information superiority. In turn information superiority dramatically increases the power of combat. Since it is new, there do exist proponents and opponents. This paper reviews the theory of NCW, and some  techniques and combat simulation systems which may help people gain more understanding of NCW.

For full paper (PDF format) click


Interaction in Factorial Experiments: Relevance of Curvilinearity of Response

T. P. Hutchinson

Abstract

It is proposed that a possible explanation of interaction between independent variables in a factorial experiment is that (a) quantities derived from the independent variables separately add together, but (b) a curvilinear relationship intervenes between their total and the dependent variable observed.

For full paper (PDF format) click


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ASOR Student Conference 2004

 
The Australian Society for Operations Research, Melbourne chapter has recently organized a one-day student conference in Melbourne University on 5th October 2004. The abstracts of the presented papers are published below for the bulletin readers.

Alex Feigin, University of Melbourne
Maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process 

This work looks at estimating the parameters of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(OU) process using maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) methods with discretely sampled data. The OU process allows for some convenient analytical results to be used in a hybrid MLE, optimisation method. MLE is known to be asymptotically consistent for this process, however, in practice it can be inaccurate.

Results from simulated data and from applying this method to real data for use in a stochastic volatility model will be shown.

Tristan Barnett, Stephen R Clarke and Alan Brown, Swinburne University
Forecasting a tennis match at the Australian Open

A method is proposed to forecast the winner of a tennis match, not only at the beginning of the match, but also during the match. Previous match statistics, as published on the web by the ATP, are combined to predict the statistics to be obtained when two given players meet, and illustrates the use of a Markov Chain model to predict the outcomes of tennis matches played at the Australian Open. Exponential smoothing is used after each round for updating the parameters of the model. By applying Bayesian methods the model can be used for a match in progress. Using the Australian Open point-by-point data, we demonstrate how a match can be forecasted in real time. Suggestions to improve the predictions are discussed.

Matthew Ovens, Monash University and Bruce Bukiet, New Jersey Institute of Technology
A Mathematical Modelling Analysis of One-Day Cricket Batting Orders

There has been little published work about the influence of batting order with respect to One-Day cricket. Previous papers on cricket have mostly addressed issues of strategies (e.g. Clarke, 1988) and assessing and modelling individual player performance (e.g. Cohen, 2002 and Johnston et al, 1993). Although some work has been done on optimal batting orders (Swartz et al, 2004 In Press) this has been from a statistical simulation perspective.

Our approach has been to develop a model that would allow the computation of expected performance (runs distribution) by any given team versus any opposing team. For this presentation, we develop a mathematical model of the progress of runs for a given set of 11 players. In addition, we have developed a method for efficiently computing the expected runs distribution for a batting order. The work presented is a first step along the path to providing a full analysis and study of batting orders in One-Day cricket.

Christopher Fricke and Natashia Boland, University of Melbourne, and Gary Froyland, School of Mathematics, University of New South Wales
A strengthened formulation for the open pit mine production scheduling problem

The state of the art integer programming formulation for the open pit mine production scheduling problem is often intractable for solution by commercial solvers, due to the very large number of decision variables in the model.  A strengthened formulation is presented where the precedence and production constraints are combined to form a class of binary knapsack constraints.  Generation of corresponding knapsack cover inequalities identifies variables that can be eliminated from the model.  This leads to a tighter root node relaxation, and a dramatic decrease in the computation time required to obtained the optimal integer solution for certain pits.


Minfeng (Gary) Deng, Monash University
Anisotropic spatial models and their applications in crime analysis   

Spatial econometric models incorporate spatial information and spatial structure into standard econometrics modelling. When spatial patterns are present, many research studies have shown that spatial econometric models outperform standard econometric models. However, in the current spatial econometric toolbox spatial influences are assumed to be isotropic and of equal strength in all directions. The methodology presented in this paper attempts to explore the directional issue of spatial interactions. In this paper I introduce the so-called anisotropic spatial models. Their applications in the analysis of crime rates in South Africa showed some interesting results. Evidence was found that spatial effects are not homogenous. 

Ameer A Khan, RMIT University
Real time prediction of ship motion using advanced statistical techniques

Due to the random nature of ship motion in open water environments, the deployment and the landing of vehicles from a ship can often be difficult and even dangerous. The ability to predict reliably the motion will allow improvements in safety on board ships and facilitate more accurate deployment of vehicles off ships. This paper presents an investigation into the application of artificial neural network methods and system identification techniques for the prediction of ship motion. It is shown that the artificial neural network produces excellent ship motion predictions for up to 10 seconds in real time.

Nicholas Cotsell, University of Melbourne
Finding the minimum spans of no-hole T-distant colourings of Hamming graphs
 

Don Forbes, Swinburne University
Post Match Analysis of AFL matches using transition probabilities and a Markov process approach

An eight state Markov process model has been developed that provides an excellent approximation of an AFL match. Transition probabilities can be easily derived after a match using the official player statistics and used in simulation to ascertain the winning chances of each side as a result of the match events. Adjustments are made to the probabilities reflecting different outcomes in the match and the effect on chance of victory can be easily calculated.


Maya Ramakrishnan, University of Melbourne
Discretised Schemes for Bandwidth Allocation in Logical Networks

We consider a dynamic bandwidth re allocation scheme, operating in a logical network. We pose the problem as one of constrained optimisation, recognising that the solution of such a problem must be distributed in nature.
In continuous time and capacity, it is possible to construct systems of ordinary differential equations that converge to the optimal solution. However in reality, such schemes operate in discrete time and capacity. In this talk, I will present two heuristic schemes that are motivated by the theoretical results and illustrate how a little extra computation can lead to more “well behaved” system dynamics.



Forthcoming Conferences

 
Conferences in Australasia

International Workshop on Interdisciplinary Decision Making
December 6-7, 2004, University of Melbourne, Australia
www.asor.ms.unimelb.edu.au/iw04/
Organized by: Melbourne Chapter of the Australian Society for Operations Research (ASOR)

Early Bird Registration Deadline: November 6, 2004

The program is organized in such a way to give the participants plenty of opportunities for informal discussions and networking.

Keynote Lecture:
From Planning to Execution: The Ever-Shrinking Optimization Time Horizon - Bob Bixby, ILOG and Rice University

Invited Lectures:
•    Using commercial codes to solve cutting stock problems - Bob Johnston, University of Melbourne, Australia
•    Introduction to ILOG CPLEX, ILOG CPLEX Robustness, & Methods for Embedding ILOG CPLEX - Irv Lustig, ILOG, ILOG, USA
•    ILOG Optimization Customer Case Study: Open Pit Mining Scheduling, - Froyland, University of New South Wales, Australia
•    Software Engineering for Operations Research and Optimization, - Leon Sterling, University of Melbourne, Australia
•    Solving Logistic and Scheduling Problems via Constraint Programming, - Mark Wallace, Monash University, Australia
•    Global Optimization: Software Development and Applications, - Janos Pinter, JPC, Canada
•    ORPIM: The OR Practitioner's Impact Mindset, -  Mohan Krishnamoorthy, CSIRO, Australia

Panel Discussions:
•    OR and Optimization in the Asia Pacific region
•    Education and Training in OR and Optimization
•    Practicing Optimization and OR in Australia

IES’2004 : The 8th Asia Pacific Symposium on Intelligent and Evolutionary Systems, 6-7 December 2004, Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns, Australia.
http://www.complexity.org.au/conference/index.html

The deadline for submissions is Monday, 13th September. For further details, see the website.

AI'2004 : The 17th Australian Computer Society (ACS) Australian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns
6-10 December 2004
http://www.ai2004.cqu.edu.au/

This series of conferences attracts leading researchers and practitioners from Australia and overseas, and focuses on all aspects of artificial intelligence.

Theory and technology presented at AI'2004 will be of interest to researchers and practitioners who want to know about both theoretical advances and the latest applied developments in Artificial Intelligence.

AI'2004 seeks original research and application papers for peer review publication in any area of Artificial Intelligence.

This conference will be run in conjunction with Complex'2004, the 7th Australian National Conference on Complex Systems. For details please refer to the home page http://complex2004.cqu.edu.au

For further details, please contact: AI2004 Conference Secretariat, Faculty of Informatics and Communication, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton Queensland 4702 Australia
Tel: +61 749232145 Fax: +61 749309729 Email: secretariat-ai2004@cqu.edu.au

ICOTA 2004 :  Sixth International Conference on Optimization: Techniques and Applications, Ballarat, Victoria, December 9 - 11, 2004.
http://www.ballarat.edu.au/ard/itms/CIAO/ORBNewsletter/ICOTA/index.shtml

The International Conference on Optimization: Techniques and Applications (ICOTA) is an official conference series for POP (The Pacific Optimization Research Activity Group). The goal of ICOTA is to provide an international forum for scientists, researchers, software developers, and practitioners to exchange ideas and approaches, to present research findings and state-of-the-art solutions, to share experiences on potentials and limits, and to open new avenues of research and developments, on all issues and topics related to optimization.

Papers on issues related to optimization are welcome. Topics include (but not limited to) those in the following tracks:
•    Optimization theory
•    Algorithms design, analysis and implementation
•    Applications in different fields

The refereed Proceedings of ICOTA6 will include all papers accepted for the conference and will appear on CD-Rom before the conference. Selected papers will be published in special issues of international journals including:
•    Optimization Methods and Software
•    Computational Optimization and Applications
and a book which will appear in the series Applied Optimization (Kluwer Academic Publishers).

6th Australian Conference on Knowledge Management and Intelligent Decision Support , Monash University, Melbourne, December 11-12, 2003.

This year the conference theme is: "Managing Knowledge with Technology"

The conference intends to explore the role of ICT in knowledge management and in particular open the discussion on if and/or how innovative application of ICT can contribute to implementing knowledge management strategies.

Authors are invited to submit research papers as well as application examples representing original, previously unpublished work.

Review Procedures:  All submitted papers will be blind peer reviewed by at least two members of the International Program Committee. The review criteria are based on originality, rigor, and relevance of content. No paper, which has been previously accepted, published, or presented at another meeting, or submitted for review else where may be submitted. Accepted papers will appear as a monograph with an ISBN number and published by Australian Scholars Publishing.

Full details including submission formats available at:
http://www.sims.monash.edu.au/research/km/ACKMIDS2003/


APIEMS2004 : The Fifth Asia-Pacific Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Conference & The Seventh Asia-Pacific Division Meeting of the International Foundation of Production Research, ANA Hotel, Gold Coast, Australia, December 12-15, 2004
http://www.maths.qut.edu.au/apiems2004/

Aim and Scope: The objective of this conference is to provide a forum for the exchange of ideas on the latest developments in Industrial Engineering and Management Systems and to seek opportunities for collaboration among the participants.
 
Call for Invited Sessions: Authors are encouraged to organise a session in topics relevant to the conference.  Interested session organisers are requested to submit a proposal, including the title of the session, titles of articles, a list of participating authors and their affiliation, by Monday 1 March 2004 to the conference secretary.
 
Call for Contributed Papers: Scholars are invited to send in their contributions. Papers will be selected based on their originality, timeliness, significance, relevance and clarity of presentation. Camera-ready manuscripts are required after the conference committee accepts abstracts.
 
Abstract Submission Instructions: Either post or e-mail submission is acceptable. Electronic submission should be in MS WORD format and submitted to the conference secretary by
 
World Wide Web: On-line submission/ conference homepage
http://www.maths.qut.edu.au/apiems2004
E-mail: apiems2004@fsc.qut.edu.au
Mail: APIEMS2004, c/- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434 Brisbane Qld 4001, Australia


International Conferences

VOCAL :  The Vescprem Optimization Conference: Advanced Algorithms, Veszprem, Hungary, December 13-15, 2004.
http://www.dcs.vein.hu/vocal/

IFORS2005 :  17th Triennial Conference of the International Federation of Operations Research Society hosted by INFORMS, Hilton Hawaiian Beach Resort and Spa, Honolulu, Hawaii, July 11-15, 2005.
http://www.informs.org/Conf/IFORS2005

HNICEM 2005 : The 2nd International Conference on Humanoid, Nanotechnology, Information Technology, Communication and Control, Environment, and Management 2005, 17-20 March 2005, Manila, Philippines.   http://www.dlsu.edu.ph/conferences/hnicem/

CDGO-05 : The International Conference on Complementarity, Duality and Global Optimization with Applications, August 15-17, 2005, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
http://www.conted.vt.edu/cdgo/

To the Top





New Books for 2004
 
Compiled by
Emma Hunt


Mathematical Reliability: An Expository Perspective
Edited by
Refik Soyer, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA
Thomas A. Mazzuchi, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA
Nozer D. Singpurwalla, The George Washington University, Washington DC, USA

Kluwer Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 67)

In this volume consideration was given to more advanced theoretical approaches and novel applications of reliability to ensure that topics having a futuristic impact were specifically included. Topics like finance, forensics, information and orthopaedics, as well as the more traditional reliability topics, were purposefully undertaken to make this collection different from the existing books in reliability. The entries have been categorized into seven parts, each emphasising a theme that seems poised for the future development of reliability as an academic discipline with relevance. The seven parts are networks and systems; recurrent events; information and design; failure rate function and burn-in; software reliability and random environments; reliability in composites and orthopaedics, and reliability in finance and forensics. Embedded within the above are some of the other currently active topics such as causality, cascading, exchangeability, expert testimony, hierarchical modelling, optimisation and survival analysis. These topics, when linked with utility theory, constitute the science base of risk analysis.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7697-5, December 2003, 358 pages, EUR 180.00 /  USD 200.00 /  GBP 124.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7697-5

The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management
By
Kalyan T. Talluri, Dept. of Economics & Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
Garrett J. van Ryzin, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, USA

Kluwer Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 68)

Revenue management (RM) is one of the most successful applications in Operations Research. The RM has grown from its application with a handful of major airlines to its status today as a mainstream business practice with a growing list of industry users from Walt Disney Resorts to National Car Rental and a supporting industry of software and consulting firms. Over this same time period, academic and industry research on RM methodology has also grown rapidly. While the number of published papers on RM has increased in dramatic measures, there is still no book that comprehensively covers the field of RM. Such a book is a pressing need because:

Much of the "Institutional" knowledge of revenue management is relatively inaccessible to those outside the profession. It is difficult to find the fundamental and seminal ideas in the literature because these ideas either do not appear in published journals or appear in relatively obscure sources.

The terminology, concepts, and notation need to be standardised, so the general reader can understand and apply the contributions in the RM literature. The gap between practitioners and academics in the field needs to be closed.

The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management is a book that will meet these needs. It comprehensively covers theory and practice of the entire field, including both quantity and price-based RM, as well as significant coverage of supporting topics such as forecasting and economics. The authors believe such a comprehensive approach is necessary to fully understand the subject. A central objective of the book is to unify the various forms of RM and to link them closely to each other and to the supporting fields of statistics and economics. Nevertheless, the topics and coverage do reflect choices about what is important to understand RM. Hence the book's purpose is to provide a comprehensive, accessible synthesis of the state-of-the-art in Revenue Management. The audience for The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management is threefold: (1) It will be of use to the academic researchers now working in RM-related topics, as well as those who work in related areas (such as supply chain management), who seek a single-source accessible overview of the theory and practice components of RM. (2) For practitioners the book will serve as a single-source reference for the theory and application issues involved in RM. (3) Finally, there are a growing number of university and seminar courses specially focused on RM for which the book can serve as a core text.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7701-7, April 2004, 752 pages, EUR 126.00 /  USD 140.00 /  GBP 87.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7701-7

Critical Infrastructures
Edited by
Wil A.H. Thissen, Dept. of System Engineering, Policy Analysis & Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
Paulien M. Herder, Dept. of System Engineering, Policy Analysis & Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Kluwer Book Series:  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science (Volume 65)

Infrastructures have become more and more critical to the functioning of society, as economic and social processes to a large extent rely on the services provided by such systems. Failure of these infrastructures, therefore, is one of the most important vulnerabilities of modern society. In addition and simultaneously much change is taking place within and around these infrastructures. This change includes: increasingly rapid technological change, rapid institutional change, increasing system complexity, increasing trans-boundary dependencies, tensions between market concerns addressing (short-term) economic gains, and increasing demands on service quality. These and other changes pose formidable challenges to policy makers, business innovators, system designers, infrastructure operators and scientists alike.

Critical Infrastructures: State of the Art in Research and Application, comprising a selection of reviewed and edited contributions from all over the world, aims to shed light on the various aspects of critical infrastructures. The editors of this book have opted for a broad view on the various criticality aspects on infrastructures itself as well as contributions that discuss the institutional and technical environment of critical infrastructures which are crucial for their proper functioning. Critical Infrastructures brings to light a number of eye-opening critical issues that have been only marginally touched upon in research and practice. Hence, the book is an indispensable resource for infrastructure policy makers, managers, consultants and researchers alike.

The book is divided into four sections:
•    Vulnerability and Risk;
•    System Development and Adaptation;
•    Institutional Change;
•    Capacity Management.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7601-0, September 2003, 316 pages, EUR 117.00 /  USD 130.00 /  GBP 81.00,
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7601-0

Schedule-Based Dynamic Transit Modeling:  Theory and Applications
Edited by
Nigel H.M. Wilson, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
Agostino Nuzzolo, Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Italy

Kluwer Book Series:  Operations Research/Computer Science Interfaces (Volume 28)

Schedule-Based Dynamic Transit Modeling: Theory and Applications outlines the new schedule-based dynamic approach to mass transit modelling. In the last ten years the schedule-based dynamic approach has been developed and applied especially for operational planning. It allows time evolution of on-board loads and travel times for each run of each line to be obtained, and uses behavioural hypotheses strictly related to transit systems and user characteristics. It allows us to open new frontiers in transit modelling to support network design, timetable setting, investigation of congestion effects, as well as the assessment of new technologies introduction, such as information to users (ITS technologies).

The contributors and editors of the book are leading researchers in the field of transportation, and in this volume they build a solid foundation for developing still more sophisticated models. These future models of mass transit systems will continue to add higher levels of accuracy and sensitivity desired in forecasting the performance of public transport systems.

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7687-8, December 2003, 296 pages, EUR 117.00 /  USD 130.00 /  GBP 81.00
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7687-8
 
 Marketing Research and Modeling: Progress and Prospects A Tribute to Paul E. Green
Edited by
Yoram Wind, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA
Paul E. Green,The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA

This book addresses state-of-the-art developments including new techniques and methodologies by leading experts in marketing and marketing research. This work emphasises new developments in Bayesian decision analysis, multivariate analysis, multidimensional scaling, conjoint analysis, applications of conjoint and MDS technique, data mining, cluster analysis and neural networks.
 
 Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Hardbound, ISBN 1-4020-7596-0, December 2003, 360 pages, EUR 86.00 /  USD 95.00 /  GBP 55.00.
http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-7596-0

Introduction to Probability Models - Operations Research , Volume II (with CD-ROM and InfoTrac) 4th Edition
By
Wayne Winston, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business

This text, the second volume of Wayne Winston's successful Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms, Fourth Edition, covers probability models with recent contributions from financial engineering, computational simulation and manufacturing. The specific attention to probability models with the addition of recent practical breakthroughs makes this the first text to introduce these ideas together at an accessible level. Excellent problem sets abound. The text provides a balanced approach by developing the underlying theory while illustrating them with interesting examples. All of the necessary mathematical requirements are reviewed in Chapter 1.

Duxbury Press, Case Bound, ISBN 053440572X,  2004, 752 pages, 8 x 10, AUD 99.95

http://www.duxbury.com/cgi-brookscole/course_products_bc.pl?fid=M2b&discipline_number=17&product_isbn_issn=053440572X

Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms (with CD-ROM and InfoTrac), Fourth Edition
By  
Wayne Winston, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business

Written for junior /senior level undergraduate and graduate courses in Operations Research. This is often a two-term course, with the first course covering mathematical or linear programming (deterministic methods) and the second half covering probability models. The mathematical requirement includes both calculus and linear algebra. Students in industrial engineering, business, and applied mathematics typically take this course. Approximately 25,000 students take this course annually.

The market-leading textbook for the course, Winston's Operations Research owes much of its success to its practical orientation and consistent emphasis on model formulation and model building. It moves beyond a mere study of algorithms without sacrificing the rigour that faculty desire. As in every edition, Winston reinforces the book's successful features and coverage with the most recent developments in the field. The Student Suite CD-ROM, which now accompanies every new copy of the text, contains the latest versions of commercial software for optimisation, simulation, and decision analysis.

New to this edition:
This edition places greater emphasis on spreadsheets, with more examples and instructions appearing throughout the text.
The Student Suite CD-ROM that accompanies every new copy of the text contains the latest versions of commercial software, including LINDO, LINGO, Premium Solver, NeuralWorks Predict, DecisionTools Suite (@RISK, PrecisionTree, and BestFit), StatPro, and ProcessModel.
Over 200 new exercises have been added, and hundreds have been revised.

The text now includes output and instructions for using ProcessModel and @Risk, two popular professional simulation software packages.

Many new examples are taken from hot emerging disciplines such as financial engineering.

The book's emphasis on model formulation and model building throughout reinforces the practical approach taken by this text.

The rich and thorough examples and exercises offer excellent applications to industry.

Duxbury Press, Hardcover, ISBN 053440572X, Non-InfoTrac Version ISBN 0-534-42358-2, 2004, 1200 pages

http://newtexts.com/newtexts/book.cfm?book_id=1375




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